Majority of the population in India derives its livelihood from agriculture. About 60 percent of total net sown area is rain-dependent and with June-September monsoon accounting for around 70 percent of the total rainfall, the monsoon forecast by IMD has major influences on government policies and grass root actions.
Policy formulation:
• Disaster management – Government can plan and make adequate arrangements in case of drought or flood like situations to provide timely relief.
• Food security – Government can timely modify and announce buffer stock limitations, ease import restrictions and make procurements to ensure stable prices and supply of food crops.
• Shield farmers – Government can announce insurance schemes and influence farmers to cultivate suitable (drought resistant) crops, though MSP, to provide them some safety net.
• Public investment – A poor monsoon has adverse impacts not only agricultural sector but also on the industrial and services sector (due to subdued domestic demand). So, in case of a poor monsoon govt. can proactively increase its public sector spending to boost demand.
Grass root:
• Alternate employment – People dependent on agriculture can look for and secure alternative source of income and employment (e.g. through MGNREGA, livestock farming) in advance.
• Spending decisions – Farmers can make better informed decisions whether to invest in Capital or buy insurance schemes.
• Sowing – Farmers can decide whether to cultivate water intensive or drought resistant crops.
CONCLUSION:
IMD has moved from statistical to mixed (Dynamic cum Statistical) model for monsoon forecasting but it needs to improve the accuracy of its predictions at both centralized and block level, so that farmers and government can make right decisions at right time.
